COVID is not over

Variants

• "People understand that each wave is caused by a different variant, and that the reason those variants cause waves is because they are more transmissible and/or escape immunity, and that more transmission means more variants will continue to evolve, right?" - T. Ryan Gregory, professor of evolutionary biology (via T. Ryan Gregory, 2022-08-23)
• As per this chart, the required amount of exposure to an infectious person has gone down a ton as variants have evolved, greatly reducing the effectiveness of masking when using masks of lesser quality than N95. (2022-06-28)
  • While this chart lumps together all Omicron variants, this trend of higher transmissibility and mask evasiveness is continuing with modern Omicron variants such as BA.2.76. (via Pandemic News, 2022-08-21)
• While the original COVID-19 virus was believed to have a 90-day immunity window between infections, it seems that as of the Delta variant, the reinfection window may be as short as 23 days. (via Forbes, 2022-04-07)

Long COVID

• According to the June-July 2022 Census Bureau survey, 16 million Americans aged 18 to 65 have long COVID in August 2022, with 2 to 4 million of them unemployed due to long COVID. (via Brookings Metro, 2022-08-24)
• Long COVID can last as long as 2 years and 5 months, according to a teenager who got the first strain of COVID-19 in the US. (via Joey, 2022-07-10)
• The University of Southern California Understanding America Study COVID-19 longitudinal survey reveals that 24.1% of individuals who have been infected with COVID-19 have had long COVID, with 25.9% of them having their employment or work hours impacted by their long COVID symptoms. (via Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2022-07-07)
• A review of 57 studies covering over 250 000 COVID-19 survivors has identified the following long COVID symptoms: (via JAMA Network Open, 2021-10-13)
  • Increased oxygen requirement - 65%
  • Chest imaging abnormalities - 62.2%
  • Impairment in general functioning - 44%
  • Fatigue, muscle weakness - 37.5%
  • General pain - 32.4%
  • Pulmonary diffusion abnormalities - 30.3%
  • Dyspnea (shortness of breath) - 29.7%
  • Anxiety disorders - 29.6%
  • Sleep disorders - 27%
  • Difficulty concentrating - 23.8%
  • Ground glass opacification - 23.1%
  • Depression - 20.4%
  • Mobility decline - 20.2%
  • Memory deficits - 18.6%
  • Cognitive impairment - 17.1%
  • Reduced exercise tolerance - 14.7%
  • Posttraumatic stress disorder - 13.3%
  • Cough - 13.1%
  • Anosmia (loss of smell) - 13%
  • Muscle pain - 12.7%
  • Dysgeusia/ageusia (loss or distortion of taste) - 11.2%
  • Flu-like symptoms - 10.3%
  • Restrictive patterns on spirometry - 10%
  • Joint pain - 10%
  • Headaches - 8%
  • Lung fibrosis - 7%
  • Persistent fever - 0.9%

Reinfections

• "Every time you get infected, long COVID accumulates, and this is extremely worrying. It means there is no wall of immunity built by infection against the impacts of infection. So this is all the more reason why we have to be very anti-infection in our strategy. Don't think just because you've had one there's no problem in getting a second infection. There's every reason to try and stop getting a second or third infection and reduce the chances of long COVID. I worry about (long COVID) more than I worry about the acute effects." - Professor Brendan Crabb, Director & CEO of the Burnet Institute (via Burnet Institute, 2022-08-20)
• Repeated COVID infections can prematurely age human immune systems, by killing a bunch of T cells and damaging the body's white blood cell production, making it harder to defend against other viruses and auto-immune diseases. (via National Post, 2022-07-30)

Personal interpretation

• Vaccinations primarily protect us from the acute effects of early COVID infections, but risks of long COVID remain quite high at around 25%.
• With each infection, effects of long COVID accumulate, and so does the risk of long COVID complications on reinfection.
• Given the impact of COVID on your immune system, partaking in a society that encourages frequent reinfection leads you down one of two paths long-term:
  • As our immune system gradually weakens from reinfections, the acute effects of COVID reinfections will get worse and have increasing chances of hospitalizing or killing you
  • As long COVID becomes inevitable given enough time, your quality of life (and your ability to provide for yourself or your family) will deteriorate
• No one protection measure against COVID infections is perfect, so we should layer as many protection measures as possible to reduce the risk of infections (the swiss cheese model)